Catastrophes: Harbor Seals
Disease outbreaks in 1931, 1957, 1964, and 1980
445 seals out of ~10,000 died.
Probability of catastrophe:
- 26, 12, 14 years between outbreaks
- Average time between outbreaks = 17 years.
- 1 every 17 years or 6 every 100 years.
Loss (e.g., % surviving)
- 9,555 / 10,000 ~ 95%
- Reproduction = ?
J. R. Geraci et al., Science 215, 1129-1131 (1982).